See the market in a whole new light.

Pauline Lierman, Zonda’s vice-president of market research for Ontario and Eastern Canada, said CMHC’s method is not a good barometer for evaluating the length of time it takes to start and complete a building...Although some projects are put on hold after the excavation has begun, Ms. Lierman argues this is a very small number relative to the overall size of the market. When a site is fully cancelled – such as what happened when one of Vandyke Properties’ condo projects was pushed into receivership in 2023 – Ms. Lierman said the start is removed from Zonda’s overall construction count.

"The contrast in demand between the two market sectors, apartment and townhouses, could not have been more stark," says Pauline Lierman, Zonda Urban's vice president, market research. "Developers with townhouse product showed optimism with several projects selling out shortly after at launch.

"Ground related townhouses really are the engine of this market," says Pauline Lierman, Zonda Urban vice president of market research.

There isn’t an easy way to track how long it takes for approved projects to get to the launch of a presale campaign, according to Bennest.

“The challenge is that it could be a variety of factors ranging from the economy, poor decisions, other priorities, lack of resources or finances. It could be a speculator looking to (get an) approval and sell to another developer, higher costs to build, and many more factors.”

Zonda Urban's Q3-2024 survey reveals a historic shift in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area multi-family housing market, as townhouse sales account for 56% of transactions, overtaking the long-dominant condominium sector amid a slowdown in demand.

According to Zonda Urban, an analytics firm that tracks real estate and rental data, roughly 5,000 new purpose-built market rental units are expected to come on stream in Calgary in the coming year, with 3,000 more expected after that.

“2022 was a year of extremes for the multi-family market in the GTHA,” Pauline Lierman, Vice President Market Research for Zonda Urban said. “The pace of sales tested historic highs at the start of the year – first half sales were ahead by 3 per cent over 2021, then the successive interest rate hikes inverted those gains to a 60 per cent year-over-year drop during the second half.”

Across Metro Vancouver, there are more than 20 towers over 45 storeys that have been approved by municipal governments, according to data from Zonda Urban market analyst Justin Lee. More than half of these are in Burnaby. Five are in Coquitlam and Port Moody, while Downtown Vancouver, New Westminster and Surrey have one each.

Presale dangers ahead: A declining market could expose buyers to significant risk